The first effects of the war on fuel prices they begin to see each other. At the moment, according to data collected by Lab24 of the Sole 24 Ore, the average price of petrol on the road is 1.77 euros per litre. The weekly average from February 24 to March 2 was higher: 1.67 euros per litre. Diesel instead exceeds 2 euros. If the average weekly price was 1.72 euros until March 2, now the highway price (higher than the street one) has reached 2.01 euros.
After criticism from the opposition, Giorgia Meloni also spoke who announced in a video published on social media that the government is considering activating the mobile excise duty mechanism to mitigate fuel prices. It is a complex problem, which does not only concern issues related to geopolitics such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
There are larger issues than that they are also about speculationas we explained to you in this in-depth study. The increase in energy prices linked to international crises a phenomenon that we had already seen in other contexts, starting from war in Ukraine.
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The predictions of artificial intelligence
We tried to analyze the trend of prices with the Gemini 3 Reasoning model in its Pro version. It is the most advanced form of artificial intelligence developed by Google. A premise. Obviously this artificial intelligence model he has no visibility on the government’s choices. If mitigation policies are introduced, the final prices could lower. For this analysis we started from data from the Ministry for Business and Industry Made in Italy. There is obviously a difference between the price of fuel in self-service mode and that of served fuel:
- Gas. The price of petrol in self-service mode is expected to reach a threshold between 1.810 – 1,840 euros per litre, therefore exceeding today’s price by a few cents, which has already been rising in recent days. The served player, on the other hand, will overcome in a stable manner 1.9 euros per litre.
- Diesel. With diesel, or diesel, however, the psychological threshold of is exceeded 2 euros. The self should arrive at 1.95 euros per liter while the one served should reach 2.05 euros per litre.
One of the reasons highlighted in this increase makes it quite clear why it will be difficult to avoid price increases in the coming days. THE prices at the petrol pump they are not directly linked to those of crude oil: there is always a transmission delay. At the moment therefore we still have to wait to record the whole thing increase curve due to crises in Gulf countries.
