Samsung would begin a reduction in smartphone production in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a potential cut until 30%. According to information gathered from multiple technology industry stakeholders and reported on October 7, the Mobile eXperience (MX) division has asked suppliers to decrease deliveries by 20-30%. The increase in memory costs, which would have compromised the profitability of telephones, would have weighed on the decision above all.
I am indications coming from the supply chainnot a reduction plan officially announced by Samsung. 30% also represents the upper limit of the proposed cut. The reconstruction links the contraction in supplies to that of assembled devices, but does not present a breakdown of interventions by Galaxy family or price range.
The hypothesized slowdown would be more marked than that already expected by analysts. The IDC data reported in the material indicate 62.4 million smartphones shipped in the first quarter And 62.7 million in the second. For the third and fourth quarters, the reconstruction instead cites production forecasts of 59 and 52 million units respectively, with a sequential decline of approximately 12%.
These figures require attention because shipping and production they describe different steps and should not automatically overlap. The picture reported, however, signals a revision of annual expectations: from 270 million smartphones initially expected, also in the wake of the reception of the Galaxy Z Fold8, to a volume just over 200 million. They are reconstruction estimates, not updated goals communicated by the company.
Memory puts pressure on smartphone accounts
The economic issue concerns above all the Low-power DRAM. According to the TrendForce data cited, in Q2 2026 a 12GB LPDDR5X configuration achieved a price between 145 and 146 dollarsup 175% compared to the same period in 2025. The proposed explanation links the price increase to the strong demand for memory generated by the artificial intelligence industry.
For the third quarter, the material reports a forecast of a further increase in DRAM destined for smartphones, equal to approximately 20% on the previous quarterwith prices up to $180. This last value remains a forecast, not a final quotation. Component costs put pressure on margins: producing and selling more phones does not guarantee maintaining the same level of profit.
An interlocutor from the sector therefore interprets the reduction in volumes as an attempt to protect profitsdescribing margins that are now extremely compressed. The claim that selling smartphones would leave no profit remains an assessment of the source. It is not equivalent to an official accounting data and does not allow the same profitability to be attributed to all Samsung models.
There is also a component seasonal. The reconstruction reminds us that the fourth quarter tends to weaken while waiting for new devices, normally presented between January and February. It also places the question linked to the school calendar in the first quarter. The increase in the price of memories would therefore add to an already usual slowdown, accentuating its extent.
To verify the actual economic performance of the division, the following are needed: corporate results. The official Samsung calendar has set the communication of preliminary estimates for the third quarter on October 8th and the results conference on October 29th. These deadlines do not constitute a confirmation of the production cut reported by the supply chain.
