Artificial intelligence could make it necessary for governments to intervene directly establish which jobs should remain the prerogative of human beingseven when technically they could be carried out by automated systems. This is the premise behind the Bill Gates’ proposalwhich introduced the concept of “Human Reserved“, that is, occupations or specific tasks that society would deliberately decide not to entrust to machines.
The analogy used by Gates is that of nature reserves: areas in which development is limited not because it is technically impossible, but because their conservation is believed to have value. The same principle could be applied to the job marketidentifying activities in which human presence is considered important even in the presence of an AI-based alternative.
Among the examples cited by Gates appear child care and jury serviceareas in which he believes that people are better suited than machines. However, the proposal is less radical than the idea of a clear separation between human jobs and automated jobs might suggest. In education and healthcare, for example, Gates does not propose banning artificial intelligence. The idea would rather be to protect certain professions by letting workers use AI to increase productivity and effectiveness.
The model could take two forms. In some cases an occupation may be declared permanently reserved for human beings. In others, protection would have temporary nature and it would serve to give time to workers who cannot realistically re-convert to another profession. Gates cites, in this context, i manufacturing workers in advanced career stagesfor whom a rapid career change could be particularly difficult. The introduction of AI in certain sectors could therefore be spread over years or decades rather than producing an immediate replacement.
However, Gates believes that such a strategy cannot preserve the entire job market. In a particularly extended form of the program, it estimates that it may be possible to initially reserve up to 40% of jobs for humansdefining this percentage as the maximum he managed to reach in his evaluations. The majority of occupations would therefore still remain exposed to the evolution of automation.
Another component of the proposal concerns the tax system. Gates argues that governments and legislators should consider a taxation on the use of AI systems and robotswith the aim of reduce the economic incentive to replace workers. According to Gates, in fact, “The tax system pushes us to replace people with machines”, because human labor is taxed more than the capital used in automation.
The necessary change, according to the founder of Microsoft, would be anything but marginal: “I’m talking about a change in the tax system bigger than any in my lifetime“. The proposal takes up an idea that Gates had already put forward in 2017, when he spoke of a possible tax on robots. At the time, several economists expressed doubts, observing that such a measure could end up taxing productivity rather than solving the employment problem.
The new debate, however, comes in a context in which artificial intelligence is being adopted in a growing number of professional activities. Gates identifies customer care, software development and paralegal activities as some of the sectors that could be hit first. Construction and hospitality, however, could see more automation by the end of the decade.
Particular attention is paid to younger workers. Gates cites research that Opportunities for those entering the labor market for the first time are decreasing in some contexts. Studies conducted in Switzerland have found a reduction in adverts aimed at early career workers, while research from Harvard has highlighted how some native AI startups tend to hire fewer junior workers and more experienced staff.
However, the interpretation of the same phenomena is not univocal. The labor market could also be characterized by a transformation of tasks rather than their simple elimination. Furthermore, some companies would have rehired people previously replaced by automation, in some cases with less favorable conditions.
Gates directly acknowledges the difficulties associated with his proposal. Establishing which professions should be protected, deciding who has the authority to do so, preventing companies from circumventing the rules and managing international competition from countries that choose not to adopt similar measures are all still open problems.
The employment issue fits into one broader forecast on the risks of artificial intelligence. Gates points three areas of particular concern: the possible disappearance of jobs, especially for young people; access to advanced capabilities by criminals; and the effects of AI assistants on children’s development, if systems designed to continuously indulge the user end up not encouraging them to leave their comfort zone.
Gates’ position on the labor market therefore remains highly pessimistic. “I wish I was convinced I was wrong about the job market, but I’m not“he said, adding that he would be willing to stake his reputation on the fact that “it will be very negative for the job market“.
